As the U.K. vote got closer, it seemed the only thing certain about the looming “Brexit” vote was the uncertainty around it. Now that we know they’re leaving, that uncertainty remains.

What we do know now, is that there’s plenty of industries that could be affected and they aren’t even sure how. Of course none of these won’t happen overnight; now that the U.K. has voted for a Brexit, odds are it’ll take years to fully complete. But it never hurts to be prepared—or at least, girding your professional loins.

 

First what happens now:

As you probably know, the time now is filled with doubt. Technically a vote is just a vote, and the Parliament is still free to choose whether to follow the stated wish of the people.

Aside from shaken global markets and a plummeting pound, one of the things we know for sure at this time is Prime Minister David Cameron’s decision to step down, stating that he believed “the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction.”

“I was absolutely clear about my belief that Britain is stronger, safer and better off inside the European Union,” Cameron said Friday. “But the British people have made a very clear decision to take a different path.”

Which means his successor (who he believes will be in place by the start of the Conservative conference in October) will be likely left sorting out the Article 50—the rules for exit in the Treaty of Lisbon—with EU leadership. Which they are looking to start on as soon as possible, “no matter how painful that process may be.”

Photo Credit: thedescrier cc
Photo Credit: thedescrier cc

“Any delay would unnecessarily prolong uncertainty. We have rules to deal with this in an orderly way. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union sets out the procedure to be followed if a Member State decides to leave the European Union,” said the EU regulators’ official statement. “We stand ready to launch negotiations swiftly with the United Kingdom regarding the terms and conditions of its withdrawal from the European Union.”

But though in the meantime Cameron will be pressured to activate the Article 50 process as soon as possible, starting the two-year countdown clock for negotiations, this is not nearly as simple as dropping the international relations mic. Whether or not people like it, detangling from the EU will take years, and could be very heated, as Vox writes:

After the British invoke Article 50, the parties will have a two-year window in which to cut a deal. If time runs out without a deal (or without the parties unanimously agreeing to continue negotiations), then the UK’s membership in the EU would automatically expire.

This could have dramatic consequences. At a minimum, a lot of people will have to do extra paperwork. EU citizens in Britain and Brits living in other EU nations will have to update their immigration statuses. Companies operating in both the UK and the EU will have to verify that they’re compliant with two sets of laws.

 

Industries affected:

And things could get ugly if they can’t find a compromise.

Take for instance manufacturing. U.K. manufacturing accounts for approximately 10 percent of the total GDP of the country. While some of the sector’s problems are long-standing, Laura Crawford and Jon Chesman of eSquire Global Crossings said (before the vote) that the Brexit presents some obvious concerns that manufacturers are having trouble navigating:

A survey by Markit found that approximately one third of UK manufacturers surveyed believed that uncertainty over a possible Brexit has had an impact on their business, with 8% of respondents of the view that the impact was “strongly detrimental”.

Squire Patton Boggs’s annual Manufacturing report found that 83% of respondents wanted to see the UK remain part of the EU, with many citing the fact that the EU remains UK manufacturers’ largest single trading partner.

In the event of a Brexit, manufacturers may have to contend with (1) volatile currency markets, (2) the possibility that certain countries may put trade barriers in place for UK goods and (3) that some buyers within the EU may choose to buy their goods from a supplier within the EU rather than continue to use a supplier outside of the EU structure. Those uncertainties may have caused manufacturers to put their investment and hiring decisions on hold pending the outcome of the referendum and any resulting fallout. In addition, overseas customers may be holding off placing large orders with UK manufacturers until the outcome of the referendum (and therefore the basis on which they trade with those manufacturers) is known.

And while Brexit supporters and campaign ads have long promised that the £350 million per week that the U.K. sends to the EU will be put back into the country’s economy (with specific promises to put it towards the National Health Service) officials are now walking that claim back. Not only that, but the notion that the U.K. will now be saving £350 million a week seems to be roundly debunked by financial industries—not to mention that industries will now be spending about that much to access the EU’s common market.

 

What companies will need:

Every piece of UK policy will need an update. From intellectual property to financial services to music licensing to insurers to sports to defense. Not to mention that immigration—an issue on which Brexit supporters anchored their campaigns—could change, with calls for more “secure” borders, just another thing that might drastically affecting employment agreements (even if the new boss would look largely the same as the old boss). Essentially any contract will likely need an update. Meaning that if there’s any silver lining for legal minds against the Brexit it’s that their services will be in high demand, as Lawfare writes:

Everything covered by the EU treaties would need to be considered and potentially replicated, including topics like agriculture, services, atomic energy cooperation, and any number of other areas. Switzerland could be a model here; its relationship with the EU is governed by more than 120 treaties and agreements…

[For third party agreements] the EU Treaties Office provides a complete database of all the EU’s international treaties and agreements; there are about 880 bilateral treaties and 260 multilateral treaties. It’s definitely long enough to keep British diplomats busy for the next two years…

[Within Britain], according to the House of Commons Library, anywhere between 15 percent and 55 percent of Britain’s laws come from, or are based on, EU law (the ranges depend on whether, or to what extent, EU regulations are considered laws).

 

But can we act on that “Bregret”?

Again—it’s possible. Most MPs still favor a “Bremain,” and with Scotland and Ireland poised to break up the U.K. in order to stay with the EU (an official from the former called the Brexit “democratically unacceptable”) it’s possible they’ll stick to their guns rather than the vote of the people. And as Jens Rinze writes for Brexit Legal, they do possibly have the option. Unfortunately it’s just as up in the air as anything else Brexit-related:

It is perfectly feasible that a close vote on the referendum (either way) could lead to a change of UK Prime Minister and following a General Election, a change of the political leaning of the Government. Such changes could lead to a desire by the Government of the day wanting to unilaterally revoke the Brexit notice.

Until recently it had been the widely held view across Europe that any termination notice by the UK Government to the European Council cannot be revoked unilaterally since the wording of Article 50 TEU is said to be clear, does not provide for a revocation right and provides that the termination notice kick-starts the two years negotiation period which automatically results in the relevant Member State leaving the EU after such two years unless an extension of the two year period is agreed unanimously.

So all we can say for the time-being is that the ability of the UK Government to change its mind on Brexit is yet another area of uncertainty on which the Brexit and Bremain sides of the Referendum debate – as well as different groups within the Brexit and Bremain sides – will no doubt take diametrically opposing views.