Paid leave is sweeping the nation. And it could be what sweeps the election too.

As we’ve written before, paid sick leave has experienced a real boost in popularity over the past year—and with President Obama aiming to require federal contractors to provide paid sick leave, it doesn’t look like it’s slowing down anytime soon. But as the 2016 presidential election cycle heats up, whether the law should go national or not might be a wedge issue for voters.

Though the paid sick leave remains a largely patchwork set of laws in the U.S., its upward trend is undeniable. The number of places in the U.S. offering paid sick leave (more than two dozen, with plenty more considering) has more than doubled the amount there were this time last year. And yet aside from Obama’s latest foray into executive action, there is no federal stance on paid leave. As many have noted, with a Republican-controlled Congress the President hasn’t had much luck passing through legislation on the federal level.

The latest shot across the bow comes from Carly Fiorina, Republican presidential hopeful who formally announced Sunday that she would not support a federal sick leave if elected to office.

Credit: bookgrl
Credit: bookgrl

“I’m not saying I oppose paid maternity leave. What I’m saying is I oppose the federal government mandating paid maternity leave to every company out there,”Fiorina, former chief executive of Hewlett-Packer, said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “I don’t think it’s the role of government to dictate to the private sector how to manage their businesses.”

In some ways, Fiorina is correct; the market can—and to a great extent has—steer itself in the direction of leave it wants to provide. The percentage of companies that now offer paid maternity leave is 21 percent, which although quite low is a major jump from the 12 percent only one year ago. A lot of that push has come from the tech industry, whose vying for the top talent has lead Netflix to announce that during the first year of parenthood employees get unlimited time off, while Adobe announced yesterday that it would be providing new employees with up to half a year of time off.

But the average person doesn’t work for a tech company, let alone a tech company that’s willing to provide top-dollar benefits. And most importantly, the banner year for work family policy hasn’t been driven entirely by these corporations.

In fact, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 35 percent of American workers get no paid sick leave at all. And when it comes to paid family leave that number skyrockets to 87 percent. Currently, all parents are working in more than 60 percent of American households, compared to just 40 percent 40 years ago. For those workers, paid leave could be the make-or-break issue of the election; the one whose effects they’ll feel the most immediately if they put a like-minded individual behind the desk.

That could make Fiorina an uninspired choice for voters who have yet to make their minds up, while Democrats have largely embraced paid leave as a broadly popular policy change that touches on both family planning and economic anxiety. But it could also lose her support amongst employers, as Jeff Nowak writes on FMLA Insights:

Employers, let’s not breathe a sigh of relief that we’ve dodged yet another federally-mandated employment statute or regulation. As we have witnessed over the past few years, due to the inactivity on this issue at the federal level, a growing number of states and local governments will continue to pass their own versions of paid sick leave.  So, be careful what you wish for.  My national clients are (rightfully) bemoaning the administrative nightmare associated with keeping track of every state and municipal leave law — from San Diego, California to Eastport, Maine!  Yet, this state/local activity is precisely what the White House is trying to advance given the lack of Congressional action.  Borrowing a page from the minimum wage playbook, the President is taking the message to the local level, urging states and cities to pass such laws on their own. And he’s putting money behind the effort.

It leads me to ponder: If we’re going to witness a hodgepodge of paid leave laws in ever-increasing numbers across the Union, is this really a better alternative than one federal law (assuming it preempts state law on this issue)?

With still more than a year to go and an expansive field to widdle down, this might be an open and shut issue for a large portion of U.S. voters trying to make their minds up on candidates. It might serve candidates to pay it some caution.